Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.647890 21.364829 23.261016 25.530158 28.198664 31.272157 35.132897
2024-12-15 16.894895 19.112009 21.738495 25.147369 29.564099 35.265432 43.506771
2024-12-22 15.064534 17.527026 20.597422 24.840050 30.794032 39.303581 53.444003
2024-12-29 13.757635 16.352165 19.718318 24.611835 31.964915 43.505084 65.610457
2025-01-05 12.778131 15.450493 19.031807 24.466253 33.141337 48.015822 81.100615
2025-01-12 11.879403 14.546563 18.208520 23.951636 33.573826 51.357648 96.891998
2025-01-19 11.539391 14.358458 18.351218 24.891944 36.604968 60.777504 139.216821
2025-01-26 10.952433 13.764301 17.825399 24.667628 37.480514 66.101673 179.441404
2025-02-02 10.512348 13.341024 17.506336 24.726789 38.895399 73.453930 251.134285
2025-02-09 10.156561 13.010335 17.291777 24.924236 40.630907 82.776103 391.480868
2025-02-16 9.809367 12.665572 17.019718 24.973855 42.059751 92.320143 674.408462
2025-02-23 9.435276 12.255283 16.606534 24.706050 42.703305 99.885245 1254.172459
2025-03-02 9.136106 11.947175 16.344971 24.711367 44.066298 111.867723 5503.540499
2025-03-09 8.819420 11.594519 15.983765 24.481156 44.802942 122.373838 NaN
2025-03-16 8.527830 11.265515 15.639078 24.244223 45.481192 133.867128 NaN
2025-03-23 8.266514 10.970733 15.332370 24.049600 46.243746 147.439307 NaN
2025-03-30 8.035497 10.712521 15.071277 23.920142 47.177319 164.347239 NaN
2025-04-06 7.765431 10.379695 14.659737 23.429042 46.919637 172.998753 NaN
2025-04-13 7.720898 10.407350 14.884232 24.336680 51.331497 235.017733 NaN
2025-04-20 7.519322 10.169363 14.616783 24.121591 51.999970 264.252233 NaN
2025-04-27 7.367341 10.006355 14.475619 24.178950 53.667466 318.498816 NaN
2025-05-04 7.241582 9.881102 14.395626 24.369239 55.922441 407.211028 NaN
2025-05-11 7.104836 9.731692 14.261667 24.417085 57.681887 517.996879 NaN